Expected-points comparison of going for it, punting, and kicking.
Situation
Line of scrimmageOpp 45
Distance to go4th & 3
Punt Team
Fielded punt rateⓘ43%
Pin rate inactive — the opponent's goal line is outside the punter's average range.
Kicking Game
Field PositionOpp 454th & 3FG 62 ydsNet punt 28
Click anywhere on the field to move the line of scrimmage.
Recommendation
Go For It+0.55 EP · +0.92 over next best
Go For It
Conversion Probability
Best
+0.55net EP
Conversion Probability52.4%
Field Goal
Out of range (62 yds)
-1.75-2.30 vs best
Punt
Clean Execution
-0.37-0.92 vs best
Clean Execution89.7%
Break-Even & Gut Check
Break-even conversion
31.1%
Model conversion estimate
52.4%
Above break-even — go for it.
Your confidence in the play callusing model estimate
Methodology. EP(Go) = P(convert) × EP(success spot) + P(fail) × −EP(opponent spot); a failed 4th down is treated as a turnover at the spot. EP(Punt) = P(clean) × −EP(landing spot) + block, bad-snap, and busted-coverage risk. Routine coverage uses your median return allowed so a couple of long returns don't warp net punt value; catastrophic returns are priced separately by the punt busted-coverage rate (60% of busts scored as a return TD, 40% as a big return into scoring range). A muffed catch by the return team is its own branch: the kicking team recovers about half of them and keeps a 1st down at the landing spot. Blocks and bad snaps are no longer pure spot turnovers — charted blocked-kick data (NFL/NCAA play-by-play, where roughly a quarter of blocked punts are returned or recovered for six) sets a scoop-and-score share of 25% on blocked punts, 10% on punt bad snaps, 10% on blocked field goals, and 8% on FG snap/hold errors; the remainder is a turnover behind the line of scrimmage (6 and 12 yards on punts, 4 and 10 on kicks). When your average gross punt would land on the opponent's 10 or deeper, the Pin Inside 10 rate carves that share of clean punts out and spots the opponent on its own 5; the rest of the clean punts still use the average landing spot. EP(FG) = P(make) × (3 − EP after kickoff) + P(miss) × −EP(opponent spot) + block and bad-snap risk. Field-position values use a high-school-calibrated expected-points curve.