Seeds from live power-point averages · round odds from Log5 off the predictive rating
Regular-season forecasts, not official VHSL positions. Home Game includes opening-round byes; Expected Seed is conditional on qualifying. Changes shown with % compare the what-if forecast to the baseline in percentage points.
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Current VPPI ratings and the site's game win probabilities evaluate possible finishes to the regular season. Ratings stay fixed and games are treated as independent. Each completed season recalculates opponent-win bonuses, Power Points, district results, and regional qualification. Baseline and what-if forecasts share identical underlying outcomes for unchanged games. Percentages are estimates; unresolved data and rules are flagged rather than guessed.
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Based on the current playoff seedings. Seeds come from today's power-point standings and each region's playoff format, so they are still very fluid; every remaining game can move a team up or down a line. And because one seed swap changes who plays whom in every round, the matchups below, and the odds attached to them, can swing wildly from one week to the next.